Embed and Emulate: Contrastive representations for simulation-based inference

Summary

Scientific modeling and engineering applications rely heavily on parameter estimation methods to fit physical models and calibrate numerical simulations using real-world measurements. In the absence of analytic statistical models with tractable likelihoods, modern simulation-based inference (SBI) methods first use a numerical simulator to generate a dataset of parameters and simulated outputs. This dataset is then used to approximate the likelihood and estimate the system parameters given observation data. Several SBI methods employ machine learning emulators to accelerate data generation and parameter estimation. However, applying these approaches to high-dimensional physical systems remains challenging due to the cost and complexity of training high-dimensional emulators.

Plain-language summary

Scientific modeling and engineering applications rely heavily on parameter estimation methods to fit physical models and calibrate numerical simulations using real-world measurements. In the absence of analytic statistical models with tractable likelihoods, modern simulation-based inference (SBI) methods first use a numerical simulator to generate a dataset of parameters and simulated outputs. This dataset is then used to approximate the likelihood and estimate the system parameters given observation data. Several SBI methods employ machine learning emulators to accelerate data generation and parameter estimation. However, applying these approaches to high-dimensional physical systems remains challenging due to the cost and complexity of training high-dimensional emulators.

Research problem

However, applying these approaches to high-dimensional physical systems remains challenging due to the cost and complexity of training high-dimensional emulators.

Methodology

However, applying these approaches to high-dimensional physical systems remains challenging due to the cost and complexity of training high-dimensional emulators. This paper introduces Embed and Emulate (E&E): a new SBI method based on contrastive learning that efficiently handles high-dimensional data and complex, multimodal parameter posteriors. We illustrate the theoretical properties of the learned latent space through a synthetic experiment and demonstrate superior performance over existing methods in a realistic, non-identifiable parameter estimation task using the high-dimensional, chaotic Lorenz 96 system.

Main findings

We illustrate the theoretical properties of the learned latent space through a synthetic experiment and demonstrate superior performance over existing methods in a realistic, non-identifiable parameter estimation task using the high-dimensional, chaotic Lorenz 96 system.

Key contributions

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